Social Network For Analytic Professionals
Collective Intelligence Summit - November 2009
Abstract and Benefits
What are Prediction Markets?
Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.
People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)
What are Collective Intelligence Networks?
Collective Intelligence Networks (CIN) are an entirely new way to share, trade and aggregate information. They embrace complex social networks, collaboration and market dynamics to achieve fundamental increases in human capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, aptitude and adaptation. CINs furnish a new capability infrastructure comprised of human relationships, diverse, far reaching information and markets, creating effective, fast-moving, and social information interchanges. This capability propels optimization and mastery of complex information and knowledge ecologies.
Collective intelligence Networks are growing rapidly. These networks help companies, schools, governments, and individuals to acquire, to create and lead ever-growing bodies of knowledge. Through a ceaseless flurry of self-organizing value exchanges, wikis, blogs and information markets, these stunning network capabilities achieve mastery of collective intelligence with breathtaking speed, accuracy and continuity.
Collective intelligence networks continuously amass, codify, refine and advance knowledge. Open, value-based networks enable far better decision making about product launches, features, policies and myriad other critical questions facing organizations, businesses, the environment and civil society.
URL: http://www.pmcluster.com/CHI09.htm
What are Prediction Markets?
Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.
People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)
What are Collective Intelligence Networks?
Collective Intelligence Networks (CIN) are an entirely new way to share, trade and aggregate information. They embrace complex social networks, collaboration and market dynamics to achieve fundamental increases in human capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, aptitude and adaptation. CINs furnish a new capability infrastructure comprised of human relationships, diverse, far reaching information and markets, creating effective, fast-moving, and social information interchanges. This capability propels optimization and mastery of complex information and knowledge ecologies.
Collective intelligence Networks are growing rapidly. These networks help companies, schools, governments, and individuals to acquire, to create and lead ever-growing bodies of knowledge. Through a ceaseless flurry of self-organizing value exchanges, wikis, blogs and information markets, these stunning network capabilities achieve mastery of collective intelligence with breathtaking speed, accuracy and continuity.
Collective intelligence networks continuously amass, codify, refine and advance knowledge. Open, value-based networks enable far better decision making about product launches, features, policies and myriad other critical questions facing organizations, businesses, the environment and civil society.
URL: http://www.pmcluster.com/CHI09.htm
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