"Why would you want to impose a model to your data? Plus you are ignoring any outliers in your data which would negatively impact your coefficients. Simple methods like this don't work. Plus do you know of any causal variables that drive the…"
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tom reilly replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
Ralph Winters replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
"At this point it is more of an art than a science. The major question is how quickly do you want your baseline forecasts to adapt to changes in the data? An alpha of .3 and beta of .0025 are reasonable starting points. Check out the work of Jake…"
Lane Abenroth replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
"Ralph-
Thanks for the response. I probably didn't explain my challenge very well: I can generate the MSE minimizing solution easy enough. However, as you know, the forecast results are very sensitive to the initial estimates for the smoothing,…"
Ralph Winters replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
"You can do this in Excel using Solver. Set the objective function to "minimize" to the cell containing the average MSE. Then set your constaints for the alpha, beta, and gamma cells.
-Ralph Winters"
Lane Abenroth added a discussion to the group Analytical Techniques
Holt-Winters forecasting
Does anyone know of a good Excel-based algorithm for Holt-Winters exponential smoothing? I have seen several that allow the user to enter values for alpha, beta and gamma, but don't include a method for optimizing the values based on MSE.I have yet to find any two algorithms that generate similar results because of the various methods for setting the intial values for the level, seasonal and trend components.Thanks in advance for your help.....See More
Lane Abenroth updated their profile
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- Short Bio:
- Senior Analyst, Global Sourcing
AWP Division - Terex Corporation
- Field of Expertise:
- Data Mining, Marketing Databases, Operations Research, Industrial Statistics
- Years of Experience in Analytical Role:
- 10
- Your Company:
- Terex Corporation
- Industry:
- Industrial Manufacturing
- How did you find out about AnalyticBridge?
- Email invitation
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