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Lane Abenroth
  • Redmond, WA
  • United States
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Lane Abenroth updated their profile
May 14
tom reilly replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
"Why would you want to impose a model to your data? Plus you are ignoring any outliers in your data which would negatively impact your coefficients. Simple methods like this don't work. Plus do you know of any causal variables that drive the…"
Dec 14, 2009
Ralph Winters replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
"At this point it is more of an art than a science. The major question is how quickly do you want your baseline forecasts to adapt to changes in the data? An alpha of .3 and beta of .0025 are reasonable starting points. Check out the work of Jake…"
Nov 24, 2009
Lane Abenroth replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
"Ralph- Thanks for the response. I probably didn't explain my challenge very well: I can generate the MSE minimizing solution easy enough. However, as you know, the forecast results are very sensitive to the initial estimates for the smoothing,…"
Nov 12, 2009
Ralph Winters replied to Lane Abenroth's discussion Holt-Winters forecasting in the group Analytical Techniques
"You can do this in Excel using Solver. Set the objective function to "minimize" to the cell containing the average MSE. Then set your constaints for the alpha, beta, and gamma cells. -Ralph Winters"
Nov 11, 2009
Lane Abenroth added a discussion to the group Analytical Techniques
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Holt-Winters forecasting

Does anyone know of a good Excel-based algorithm for Holt-Winters exponential smoothing? I have seen several that allow the user to enter values for alpha, beta and gamma, but don't include a method for optimizing the values based on MSE.I have yet to find any two algorithms that generate similar results because of the various methods for setting the intial values for the level, seasonal and trend components.Thanks in advance for your help.....See More
Nov 11, 2009

Profile Information

Short Bio:
Program Manager, Business Intelligence
AWP Division - Terex Corporation
My Website or LinkedIn Profile (URL):
http://www.linkedin.com/in/lane-abenroth-34bb227
Field of Expertise:
Business Analytics
Years of Experience in Analytical Role:
20
Professional Status:
Manager
Interests:
Finding a New Position, Networking
Your Company:
Terex Corporation
Industry:
Industrial Manufacturing
Your Job Title:
Program Manager, Business Intelligence
How did you find out about AnalyticBridge?
Email invitation

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