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Get prediction intervals for your forecasts, with this easy to apply statistical model

WK1model

In the words of Dr. Chris Chatfield: Predictions are often given as point forecasts with no guidance as to their likely accuracy (and perhaps even with an unreasonable high number of significant digits implying spurious accuracy!).

 

Our paper sets forth a synergy of existing statistical theories to obtain a clear-cut model for calculating forecasts with prediction intervals, named the…

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Added by MARTIN VAN WUNNIK on December 26, 2011 at 3:39pm — No Comments

Google acknowledges that its algorithms don't work with the keyword "Jew"

The message below is from Google, you can read the original version at www.google.com/explanation.html.

If you recently used Google to search for the word “Jew,” you may have seen results that were very disturbing. We assure you that the views expressed by the sites in your results are not in any way endorsed by Google. We’d like to explain why you’re seeing these results when you conduct this search.

A site’s…

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Added by Marcel Remon on December 26, 2011 at 12:30pm — 1 Comment

Big Data Analytics

Big data i s the new buzzword within the data warehousing and business analytics community.

According to TDWI r ecent report on BIG data, there are 3 Vs of big data – Volume which is multiple terabytes or over petabytes, Variety which is numbers, audio, video, text, streams , weblogs, Social media etc…
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Added by Sandeep Raut on December 26, 2011 at 10:03am — No Comments

How to build simple, accurate, data-driven, model-free confidence intervals

An updated version with source code and detailed explanations can be found here.

If observations from a specific experiment (for instance, scores computed on 10…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 25, 2011 at 8:00pm — 5 Comments

How could Amazon increase sales by redefining relevancy?

By improving its search and relevancy engines, to include item price as a main factor. The type of optimization and ROI boosting described below applies to all digital catalogs. Here we focus on books.…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 25, 2011 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

Sales forecasts: how to improve accuracy while simplifying models?

The solution is simple: leverage external data, and simplify your predictive model.

Back in 2000 I was working with GE's analytic team to improve sales forecasts for NBC Internet, a web portal owned by NBC. The sales / finance…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 24, 2011 at 9:00pm — 3 Comments

Real Life Example of Text Mining to Detect Fraudulent Buyers

The credit card transaction described here in details is a real example of a fraudulent transaction performed by organized criminals, undetected by all financial institutions involved, and very easy to detect with simple text mining techniques.

It was not caught by any of the financial…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 21, 2011 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

IBM Tech Growth Predictions: Energy, Biometrics, Mind Reading, Mobile, Junk Mail | ABC News

Who would have guessed, five years ago, that by 2011 we would have mobile phones that would, in a rudimentary way, listen to our questions and give us useful answers? Or ways for doctors to get help to…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 21, 2011 at 1:08pm — No Comments

MINE: Detecting novel associations in large data sets

Tool detects patterns hidden in vast data sets

By Haley Bridger, Broad Communications, December 16th, 2011…


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Added by Vincent Granville on December 20, 2011 at 1:12pm — No Comments

Analytic professionals: are we detailed-oriented or do we think "big picture", or both?

Hiring managers always assumed that I was a very detailed-oriented person. It turns out that this is not the case: I'm certainly a very analytic person, yet I always think "big picture", and everybody who knows me well would say that I am everything but detail-oriented.…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 19, 2011 at 4:30pm — 4 Comments

Full employment through inefficiency?

 

According to the recent landmark McKinsey Big Data study, by 2018 one in two US jobs requiring deep analytical skills will go unfilled, and there will also be an under-served demand for 1.5 million business managers and analysts “who can ask the right questions and consume the results of the analysis of big data effectively.”

McKinsey and others see it…

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Added by Tim Negris on December 19, 2011 at 12:00pm — 4 Comments

Apply for the Innovation in Analytics Award

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 15, 2011 at 7:29pm — No Comments

Great Greenplum resources for data scientists

Data Scientist Summit 2011 Highlights

New to the world of big data? New to the world of Greenplum? The Data Scientist Community is the platform to share ideas, network with industry peers and…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 15, 2011 at 3:30pm — No Comments

Clustering algorithm to approximate functions

The strategy is very easy to describe:

1. Divide the domain of your function in k sub intervals.

2. Initialize k monomials;

3. Consider the monomials as centroids of your clustering algorithm.

4. Assign the points of the function to each monomial in compliance to the cluster algo.

5. Use the gradient descent to adjust the parameters of each monomial.

6. Go to 4. until the accuracy is good enough.

Read the entire post at:…

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Added by Cristian Mesiano on December 15, 2011 at 11:00am — No Comments

Correlation or Causation? | Bloomberg Businessweek

Need to prove something you already believe? Statistics are easy: All you need are two graphs and a leading question.

By 

Correlation may not imply causation, but it sure can help us insinuate it.

Source: …

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 14, 2011 at 1:58pm — 3 Comments

5 Companies That Are Using Big Data & Gamification To Disrupt Market Research | Greenbookblog.org

Posted by Leonard Murphy.

Lately there have been several high profile new entrants into the "insights" business, most of them (but not all) from outside of the traditional market research industry. Examples range from some major global companies to small…
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Added by Vincent Granville on December 12, 2011 at 9:00pm — 1 Comment

CEO Wish List: 12 Requirements to Make Workforce Data Business Relevant

Jason Averbook, CEO of Knowledge Infusion has written many interesting and provocative blogs that challenge HR to embrace data by “doing the dirty work.” If you haven’t already, be sure to subscribe to the Knowledge Infusion…

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Added by Mike Kennedy on December 12, 2011 at 1:32pm — No Comments

Now that data's going really big, what's next? | Forbes

By Rajeshekara V. Maiya, Infosys.

Each year, we add two billion hexabytes (that’s two billion billion bytes) of data just in social conversation. American companies, across 15 sectors, with more than 1,000 employees each store on an average more data than the U.S. Library of Congress.

New Commerce

Move over, Information Age, the era of big data…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 12, 2011 at 4:46pm — No Comments

Analytics: The Widening Divide | MIT

By David Kiron, Rebecca Shockley, Nina Kruschwitz, Glenn Finch and Dr. Michael Haydock

November 7, 2011

How companies are achieving competitive advantage through analytics

Subscribe or sign in to get access to even more articles.…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 12, 2011 at 12:33am — No Comments

Only One-Third of Companies Making Effective Use of Data

HOPKINTON, Mass., Dec. 5, 2011 -- EMC Corporation today unveiled the findings of the largest-ever global survey of the data science community. Spanning the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, India and China, the EMC Data Science Study reveals and quantifies a rampant scarcity across the globe for the prerequisite skills necessary for a company to capitalize on the opportunities found at the intersection of Big Data and data analytics. Only one-third of companies are…

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Added by Titus on December 11, 2011 at 11:49pm — No Comments

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