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'Point in Time' versus 'Through the Cycle'

Point in Time (PiT) v Through the Cycle (TTC)

There used to be an argument about this; its clear to me now that this is more than an arithmetic conundrum about Ratings and RWAs its a philosophical matter applicable to wider aspects of life & thus any arguments for PiT are just lazy and myopic. Here are some good recent references; I have selected recent papers since the debate has evolved towards a conclusion since it first developed 2 or so years ago. The game has…

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Added by John A Morrison on January 19, 2012 at 5:17am — No Comments

Northwestern, IBM collaborate on business analytics courses

Northwestern University and IBM are collaborating on new business and technology curricula to help students gain the latest skills in business analytics. The new courses of study, Masters of Science degree programs with analytics concentrations in the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science and the School of Continuing Studies, will better prepare students and current professionals who are seeking new analytics skills for today’s competitive job market.

The U.S. Bureau of…

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Added by Vincent Granville on January 17, 2012 at 8:51pm — No Comments

Innovating Performance Models: Start with the Data You Own First

The recent "bigdata" phenomenon has introduced lots of trendy external data types like unstructured social media data. While this data is extremely valuable, IIA Faculty Member Greta Roberts makes the case that performance models should always include a fundamental, obvious, and readily accessible data…

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Added by Mike Kennedy on January 17, 2012 at 4:00pm — No Comments

Extract meta concepts through co-occurrences analysis and graph theory

....
So what I did is the following (be aware that is not the formal implementation of LSA!):
  1. Filter and take the base form of the words as usual.
  2. Build the multidimensional sparse matrix of the co-occurrences;
  3. I calculated for each instance the frequency to find it in the corpus;
  4. I calculated for each instance the frequency to find it in the doc;
  5. I weighted such TF-IDF considering also the distance among the…
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Added by Cristian Mesiano on January 13, 2012 at 9:04am — No Comments

Using Analytics to Connect Talent Characteristics with Enterprise Performance

Economic pressure drives businesses to find every advantage for increased business performance. While enterprises have carefully chosen key performance indicators, they are housed separately from key performance indicators of the people who do the work, missing an opportunity to quantitatively link a company's talent characteristics to business operations and outcomes.

IIA's January Office Hours call will discuss the connections between innate talent characteristics and enterprise…

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Added by Mike Kennedy on January 10, 2012 at 1:30pm — No Comments

Latest Article: Data Mining Lessons from the Movie "Moneyball"

My company (Discovery Corps, Inc.)  president Tim Graettinger has released a new article I think you'll like:

"If you’re a data miner, there’s a good chance you saw the movie Moneyball.  For me, the movie was entertaining, but the book was really enlightening.  I found it to be a source of numerous and familiar lessons about data mining - while couched in the intriguing context of major league baseball.  In this article, I’d like to share some of…

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Added by Daniel Graettinger on January 6, 2012 at 1:30pm — No Comments

Business Technology: So, What's Your Algorithm? | Wall Street Journal

We are ruined by our own biases. When making decisions, we see what we want, ignore probabilities, and minimize risks that uproot our hopes.

What's worse, "we are often confident even when we are wrong," writes Daniel Kahneman, in his masterful new book on psychology and economics called "Thinking, Fast and Slow."

An objective…

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Added by Vincent Granville on January 4, 2012 at 3:00pm — No Comments

Great apes think analytically | ScienceDaily

Great Apes Make Sophisticated Decisions: Research Suggests That Great Apes Are Capable of Calculating the Odds Before Taking Risks

ScienceDaily (Dec. 29, 2011) — Chimpanzees, orangutans, gorillas and bonobos make more sophisticated decisions than was previously thought. Great apes weigh their chances of success, based on what they know and the likelihood to…

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Added by Vincent Granville on January 4, 2012 at 3:00pm — No Comments

Missing Values Imputation with Bayesian Networks

A New Approach to Missing Values Processing with Bayesian Networks

Download the white paper here (39.5 MB).

With the abundance of “big data” in the field of analytics, and all the challenges today’s immense data volume is causing, it may not be particularly fashionable or pressing to discuss missing values. After all, who cares…

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Added by Vincent Granville on January 4, 2012 at 2:39pm — No Comments

Using Visual Analysis to Detect Call Center and BPO Fraud

Outsourced customer service and Back Office Processing (BPO) organizations process an ever increasing number of transactions and contacts every day. Agents have access to large amounts of sensitive customer information and access to company inventory to perform their operations. Every operation that is granted to outsourced agents allows for potential theft, abuse or breach of sensitive information or goods and services.

Threats within these industries range…

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Added by Andrew Marane on December 28, 2011 at 8:30am — No Comments

More about retail analytics

I lived in California a while back, and have experienced a few instances where large companies headquartered e.g. in Minneapolis, were selling products in all their stores nationwide as if everybody in US had the same weather, seasons and body size.

In particular, some stores (maybe Target - I don't remember) that sell garden tables did not have any product available in late February, although late February in much of California is a great time to remodel your garden.

Also,…

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Added by Mirko Krivanek on December 26, 2011 at 9:00pm — No Comments

Get prediction intervals for your forecasts, with this easy to apply statistical model

WK1model

In the words of Dr. Chris Chatfield: Predictions are often given as point forecasts with no guidance as to their likely accuracy (and perhaps even with an unreasonable high number of significant digits implying spurious accuracy!).

 

Our paper sets forth a synergy of existing statistical theories to obtain a clear-cut model for calculating forecasts with prediction intervals, named the…

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Added by MARTIN VAN WUNNIK on December 26, 2011 at 3:39pm — No Comments

Big Data Analytics

Big data i s the new buzzword within the data warehousing and business analytics community.

According to TDWI r ecent report on BIG data, there are 3 Vs of big data – Volume which is multiple terabytes or over petabytes, Variety which is numbers, audio, video, text, streams , weblogs, Social media etc…
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Added by Sandeep Raut on December 26, 2011 at 10:03am — No Comments

How to build simple, accurate, data-driven, model-free confidence intervals

An updated version with source code and detailed explanations can be found here.

If observations from a specific experiment (for instance, scores computed on 10…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 25, 2011 at 8:00pm — 5 Comments

How could Amazon increase sales by redefining relevancy?

By improving its search and relevancy engines, to include item price as a main factor. The type of optimization and ROI boosting described below applies to all digital catalogs. Here we focus on books.…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 25, 2011 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

Sales forecasts: how to improve accuracy while simplifying models?

The solution is simple: leverage external data, and simplify your predictive model.

Back in 2000 I was working with GE's analytic team to improve sales forecasts for NBC Internet, a web portal owned by NBC. The sales / finance…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 24, 2011 at 9:00pm — 3 Comments

Real Life Example of Text Mining to Detect Fraudulent Buyers

The credit card transaction described here in details is a real example of a fraudulent transaction performed by organized criminals, undetected by all financial institutions involved, and very easy to detect with simple text mining techniques.

It was not caught by any of the financial…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 21, 2011 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

IBM Tech Growth Predictions: Energy, Biometrics, Mind Reading, Mobile, Junk Mail | ABC News

Who would have guessed, five years ago, that by 2011 we would have mobile phones that would, in a rudimentary way, listen to our questions and give us useful answers? Or ways for doctors to get help to…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 21, 2011 at 1:08pm — No Comments

MINE: Detecting novel associations in large data sets

Tool detects patterns hidden in vast data sets

By Haley Bridger, Broad Communications, December 16th, 2011…


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Added by Vincent Granville on December 20, 2011 at 1:12pm — No Comments

Analytic professionals: are we detailed-oriented or do we think "big picture", or both?

Hiring managers always assumed that I was a very detailed-oriented person. It turns out that this is not the case: I'm certainly a very analytic person, yet I always think "big picture", and everybody who knows me well would say that I am everything but detail-oriented.…

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Added by Vincent Granville on December 19, 2011 at 4:30pm — 4 Comments

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